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NCAA Football Misleading Finals Week 1

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NCAA Box Score Analysis The chart below is taking a look at the previous week’s box scores and showing who may have overachieved or underachieved based on stats. The program generates an “expected” margin of victory, using actual final game stats, and compares that to the: 1. Las Vegas line (pre-game prediction) 2. Actual margin of victory So if a team meets or exceeds pre game expectations, by the actual play on the field, they are rewarded. However if they win or lose and are statistically dominated this program will show that. Key: 1. ATS– Against the spread. 2. Act. Yds vs Act. Spread –How each team did using their yardage stats and turnovers. 3. Game should’ve been.. — A scoring projection based on total yards gained using yards per point. 4. Win Margin—Final game margin. 5. Yds/TO spread conv.— A spread projection using total yards gained/allowed and turnovers. 6. Game tot—Acutal game total. 7. Yppt. Total—A total projection of how many points should’ve been scored based on yards. 8. W/L Projection—An estimation of the final score using actual yards and turnover margin. 9. Margin—A number each team “should’ve” won/loss by. 10. Actual Yds—Total yards gained in the game by the offense. 11. Score should’ve been..—A projection for a score based on the game stats and turnovers. 12. TO—Adjusted TO based on actual and pre-game projection. 13. Next Week—A computer generated suggestion for how a team may do next week. (Good, Bad, Play, Fade) Good—Played as they were projected to do in the game. Bad—Played below expectations for the game. Fade—Played well below expectations for the game. Play—Played better than final score and should be looked at next week. (Good/Bad/Fade/Play are just suggestions to look at as a guide. Don’t just automatically use them as they are listed. They are to be used to help not as a magic formula)
Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Game tot Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
Syracuse Lost ATS Worse than predicted Higher Scoring 25 34.31 37 24.00 2.77 73
North Carolina Won ATS Better than predicted Higher Scoring -25 -34.31 37 -24.00 6.61 70
Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
Syracuse 50.22 Should have lost by 34.31 202 7.95 1 -1.00 15.00 BAD
North Carolina 50.22 Should have won by 34.31 463 42.26 3 3.00 23.00 GOOD
Won Game Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
Syracuse —— —— YES —— YES —— —— 4-for-19 8-60
North Carolina YES YES —— YES —— YES —— 5-for-13 9-91
Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Game tot Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
Charlotte Won ATS Worse than predicted Higher Scoring 15 26.89 55 16.50 4.77 60
Appalachian State Lost ATS Better than predicted Higher Scoring -15 -26.89 55 -16.50 7.21 71
Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
Charlotte 57.55 Should have lost by 26.89 286 15.33 2 0.63 16.00 FADE
Appalachian State 57.55 Should have won by 26.89 512 42.22 3 3.00 29.00 PLAY
Won Game Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
Charlotte —— —— —— —— YES —— —— 4-for-14 5-63
Appalachian State YES YES YES YES —— YES YES 6-for-10 7-65
Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Game tot Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
Georgia Tech Won ATS Better than predicted Higher Scoring -3 -0.56 29 12.50 5.84 75
Florida State Lost ATS Worse than predicted Higher Scoring 3 0.56 29 -12.50 3.84 80
Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
Georgia Tech 50.98 Should have won by 0.56 438 25.77 2 0.96 24.00 GOOD
Florida State 50.98 Should have lost by 0.56 307 25.21 3 3.00 21.00 BAD
Won Game Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
Georgia Tech YES YES —— YES YES YES YES 8-for-16 10-80
Florida State —— —— YES —— —— —— —— 6-for-17 8-55
Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Game tot Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
Coastal Carolina Won ATS Worse than predicted Lower Scoring -15 11.60 61 4.50 5.30 60
Kansas Lost ATS Better than predicted Lower Scoring 15 -11.60 61 -4.50 5.03 73
Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
Coastal Carolina 47.39 Should have lost by 11.60 318 17.90 0 -0.38 19.00 FADE
Kansas 47.39 Should have won by 11.60 367 29.50 3 3.00 23.00 PLAY
Won Game Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
Coastal Carolina YES —— —— YES YES —— YES 8-for-14 4-48
Kansas —— YES YES —— —— YES —— 4-for-11 5-35
Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Game tot Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
Western Kentucky Lost ATS Worse than predicted Lower Scoring 14 25.36 56 13.00 4.28 58
Louisville Won ATS Better than predicted Lower Scoring -14 -25.36 56 -13.00 6.76 72
Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
Western Kentucky 52.59 Should have lost by 25.36 248 13.61 1 -0.08 12.00 BAD
Louisville 52.59 Should have won by 25.36 487 38.98 2 2.00 22.00 GOOD
Won Game Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
Western Kentucky —— —— —— —— YES —— —— 4-for-12 4-23
Louisville YES YES YES YES —— YES YES 9-for-16 3-30
Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Game tot Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
Clemson Lost ATS Better than predicted Higher Scoring -24 -40.13 50 -34.50 6.84 82
Wake Forest Won ATS Worse than predicted Higher Scoring 24 40.13 50 34.50 4.58 72
Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
Clemson 69.15 Should have won by 40.13 561 54.64 1 1.00 27.00 PLAY
Wake Forest 69.15 Should have lost by 40.13 330 14.51 0 -2.88 15.00 FADE
Won Game Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
Clemson YES YES YES YES —— YES YES 8-for-15 5-55
Wake Forest —— —— —— —— YES —— —— 5-for-17 1-6
Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Game tot Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
Duke Won ATS Better than predicted Higher Scoring 14 17.23 40 21.50 4.99 67
Notre Dame Lost ATS Worse than predicted Higher Scoring -14 -17.23 40 -21.50 6.04 73
Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
Duke 55.77 Should have lost by 17.23 334 19.27 2 0.21 19.00 GOOD
Notre Dame 55.77 Should have won by 17.23 441 36.50 1 1.00 24.00 BAD
Won Game Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
Duke —— —— —— —— YES —— —— 4-for-15 4-31
Notre Dame YES YES YES YES —— YES YES 7-for-16 4-39
Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Game tot Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
UL Monroe Lost ATS Worse than predicted Higher Scoring 30 28.87 44 24.50 4.55 44
Army Won ATS Better than predicted Higher Scoring -30 -28.87 44 -24.50 6.64 70
Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
UL Monroe 50.39 Should have lost by 28.87 200 10.76 2 -0.04 9.00 BAD
Army 50.39 Should have won by 28.87 465 39.63 1 1.00 24.00 GOOD
Won Game Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
UL Monroe —— —— —— —— YES —— —— 4-for-12 4-30
Army YES YES YES YES —— YES YES 7-for-13 4-37
Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Game tot Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
UL Lafayette Won ATS Better than predicted Lower Scoring -17 11.46 45 12.00 4.86 56
Iowa State Lost ATS Worse than predicted Lower Scoring 17 -11.46 45 -12.00 4.27 71
Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
UL Lafayette 40.11 Should have lost by 11.46 272 14.32 0 -1.00 14.00 GOOD
Iowa State 40.11 Should have won by 11.46 303 25.78 2 2.00 18.00 BAD
Won Game Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
UL Lafayette YES —— —— YES YES —— —— 6-for-14 2-22
Iowa State —— YES YES —— —— YES YES 7-for-16 3-24
Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Game tot Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
Texas El Paso Lost ATS Worse than predicted Higher Scoring 56 62.14 62 45.00 3.24 72
Texas Won ATS Better than predicted Higher Scoring -56 -62.14 62 -45.00 9.31 74
Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
Texas El Paso 81.16 Should have lost by 62.14 233 9.51 1 -2.75 14.00 BAD
Texas 81.16 Should have won by 62.14 689 71.65 0 0.00 28.00 GOOD
Won Game Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
Texas El Paso —— —— —— —— YES —— —— 3-for-16 7-30
Texas YES YES YES YES —— YES —— 5-for-10 6-55
Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Game tot Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
Texas-San Antonio Won ATS Worse than predicted Lower Scoring -3 5.77 99 5.50 6.16 82
Texas State Lost ATS Better than predicted Lower Scoring 3 -5.77 99 -5.50 6.23 77
Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
Texas-San Antonio 67.96 Should have lost by 5.77 505 31.10 0 -0.46 24.00 FADE
Texas State 67.96 Should have won by 5.77 480 36.87 2 2.00 26.00 PLAY
Won Game Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
Texas-San Antonio YES YES YES —— YES —— YES 7-for-17 11-126
Texas State —— —— —— YES —— YES —— 5-for-15 6-60
Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Game tot Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
Arkansas St. Won ATS Better than predicted Lower Scoring -4 -3.29 66 15.00 6.89 71
Kansas State Lost ATS Worse than predicted Lower Scoring 4 3.29 66 -15.00 5.42 69
Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
Arkansas St. 59.33 Should have won by 3.29 489 31.31 2 0.75 26.00 GOOD
Kansas State 59.33 Should have lost by 3.29 374 28.02 0 0.00 21.00 BAD
Won Game Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
Arkansas St. YES YES YES YES —— YES —— 6-for-13 4-58
Kansas State —— —— —— —— YES —— YES 1-for-11 8-85
Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Game tot Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
Tulane Lost ATS Worse than predicted Higher Scoring -3 -6.54 51 -11.50 5.93 67
South Alabama Won ATS Better than predicted Higher Scoring 3 6.54 51 11.50 5.54 71
Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
Tulane 54.85 Should have won by 6.54 397 30.70 1 1.00 22.00 BAD
South Alabama 54.85 Should have lost by 6.54 393 24.15 1 0.04 21.00 GOOD
Won Game Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
Tulane YES YES —— YES —— YES YES 1-for-11 4-45
South Alabama —— —— YES —— YES —— —— 8-for-17 8-65
Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Game tot Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
Eastern Kentucky Lost ATS Worse than predicted Higher Scoring 46 54.16 66 41.50 4.20 49
West Virginia Won ATS Better than predicted Higher Scoring -46 -54.16 66 -41.50 7.26 86
Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
Eastern Kentucky 71.34 Should have lost by 54.16 206 8.59 1 -2.46 9.00 BAD
West Virginia 71.34 Should have won by 54.16 624 62.75 0 0.00 31.00 GOOD
Won Game Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
Eastern Kentucky —— —— —— —— YES —— —— 1-for-11 8-65
West Virginia YES YES YES YES —— YES YES 8-for-13 8-85
Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Game tot Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
The Citadel Lost ATS Better than predicted Higher Scoring 21 11.13 33 17.50 3.94 72
South Florida Won ATS Worse than predicted Higher Scoring -21 -11.13 33 -17.50 6.31 64
Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
The Citadel 49.16 Should have lost by 11.13 284 19.02 3 1.54 16.00 PLAY
South Florida 49.16 Should have won by 11.13 404 30.14 0 0.00 20.00 FADE
Won Game Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
The Citadel —— —— YES —— —— —— YES 8-for-18 7-63
South Florida YES YES —— YES YES YES —— 5-for-12 5-50
Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Game tot Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
Campbell Won ATS Better than predicted Lower Scoring 1 15.45 53 29.00 6.36 58
Georgia Southern Lost ATS Worse than predicted Lower Scoring -1 -15.45 53 -29.00 5.41 64
Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
Campbell 51.03 Should have lost by 15.45 369 17.79 0 -2.42 17.00 GOOD
Georgia Southern 51.03 Should have won by 15.45 346 33.24 1 1.00 20.00 BAD
Won Game Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
Campbell —— YES —— YES YES —— —— 5-for-13 12-138
Georgia Southern YES —— YES —— —— YES YES 4-for-11 5-27
Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Game tot Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
Austin Peay Lost ATS Worse than predicted Lower Scoring 55 31.10 55 30.50 2.49 55
Pittsburgh Won ATS Better than predicted Lower Scoring -55 -31.10 55 -30.50 7.24 63
Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
Austin Peay 47.63 Should have lost by 31.10 137 8.26 3 0.46 7.00 BAD
Pittsburgh 47.63 Should have won by 31.10 456 39.37 0 0.00 20.00 GOOD
Won Game Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
Austin Peay —— —— —— —— —— —— —— 4-for-16 5-27
Pittsburgh YES YES YES YES YES YES YES 6-for-10 4-30
Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Game tot Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
Missouri State Won ATS Worse than predicted Higher Scoring 48 64.54 48 49.00 2.93 46
Oklahoma Lost ATS Better than predicted Higher Scoring -48 -64.54 48 -49.00 8.56 71
Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
Missouri State 70.29 Should have lost by 64.54 135 2.88 1 -3.08 7.00 FADE
Oklahoma 70.29 Should have won by 64.54 608 67.42 1 1.00 27.00 PLAY
Won Game Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
Missouri State —— —— —— —— YES —— —— 0-for-11 9-73
Oklahoma YES YES YES YES —— YES YES 6-for-12 9-75
Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Game tot Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
Houston Baptist Won ATS Better than predicted Higher Scoring 2 33.66 68 40.00 8.00 75
Texas Tech Lost ATS Worse than predicted Higher Scoring -2 -33.66 68 -40.00 6.57 95
Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
Houston Baptist 91.86 Should have lost by 33.66 600 29.10 1 -2.33 28.00 GOOD
Texas Tech 91.86 Should have won by 33.66 624 62.76 1 1.00 35.00 BAD
Won Game Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
Houston Baptist —— —— —— YES YES —— —— 7-for-15 10-60
Texas Tech YES YES YES —— —— YES YES 10-for-15 13-104
Team ATS Act. yds vs act. spread Game should’ve been.. Win Margin Yds/TO spread conv. Game tot Closing Line YPP OFF Plays
UAB Lost ATS Worse than predicted Higher Scoring 17 25.10 45 16.00 4.67 61
Miami Won ATS Better than predicted Higher Scoring -17 -25.10 45 -16.00 6.31 78
Yppt. Total W/L Projection Margin Actual Yds Score should’ve been.. TO Adjusted TO 1st Downs Next Week
UAB 55.84 Should have lost by 25.10 285 15.37 0 -1.33 14.00 BAD
Miami 55.84 Should have won by 25.10 492 40.47 1 1.00 25.00 GOOD
Won Game Total Yards Plays Run YPP Adj TO 1st Downs Rush Att 3rd Down EFF Penalties
UAB —— —— —— —— YES —— —— 3-for-15 11-75
Miami YES YES YES YES —— YES YES 7-for-17 3-30
Updated: September 14, 2020 — 6:02 pm
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